The odds on a free instant win

The sum, written out

Prizes over entry numbers. There are 10,000 entry numbers in a week's game and 58 of them carry a prize, so one play has 58 chances in 10,000, which comes out at about 1 in 172.

Each tier has its own figure, and they are worth reading separately rather than as one blur:

• 1 in 10,000 for £50 cash, because there are 1 of them.
• 1 in 5,000 for £10 cash, because there are 2 of them.
• 1 in 2,000 for £5 cash, because there are 5 of them.
• 1 in 200 for free ticket into the £250 draw, because there are 50 of them.

What those odds feel like in practice

About 1 in 172 means that if you took one play a week, every week, you would expect a long wait between results. The figure for cash specifically is longer again, at about 1 in 1,250.

9,942 losing entry numbers out of 10,000 is the honest way to describe that, and it is why the game page leads with the odds rather than with the top prize. A run of nothing is not a sign that something is wrong, it is the shape of the distribution.

The reason to play is that it costs nothing, which makes a long shot a sensible thing to take. The reason not to build your week around it is the same arithmetic.

Why a free game has long odds at all

Because nothing is coming in. A paid competition has a ticket price, and the price funds the prize, which is why a capped draw can offer a real chance at a real sum. This game has no ticket price, so the pot is funded out of the business: £95 in cash and 50 free tickets a week.

Every genuinely free game is in that position, whatever its advertising says. A free game describing itself as a good chance of winning something substantial is describing a thing nobody has worked out how to pay for.

Do the odds move while the week runs?

The published figure is for the week as a whole, and it is the one to go on. The prizes are pinned to entry numbers before the game opens, so the pool is not topped up or thinned out while the week runs.

Within the week both halves of the fraction move together as plays are taken and prizes are hit, which is why the live position belongs on the game page rather than in an explainer like this one. What does not happen is the pool quietly changing size: the ladder is fixed before the first play.

Why you cannot improve your odds here

There is one play a week per account and no way to hold two. You cannot buy more plays, earn more by spending, or stack weeks up and take them together. So unlike a capped competition, where buying more tickets genuinely changes your share of the draw, there is no lever on this game at all.

The limit is enforced where it cannot be argued with, which is in the database when the play is recorded, under a lock on the row, rather than in your browser. A limit checked only in the page is a suggestion.

That is a feature rather than an oversight. A free game with a way to get more plays by spending is a paid game with a free trial, and it would need the safeguards a paid competition needs. One play a week keeps it what it says it is. If you want a position you can size, the paid competitions publish their ticket cap, so your odds are your tickets over that cap, and our odds calculator will do the sum for any ticket count.